The High Court’s decision upholding Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment, while awarding him Sh50 million for violated rights, may have weakened his presidential path but strengthened his influence as a key opposition power broker ahead of 2027.
Monday's High Court ruling on the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua may have settled a constitutional dispute, but it has simultaneously opened a new political chapter whose consequences could stretch all the way to the 2027 General Election.
In a carefully balanced judgment, the court upheld the decision by Parliament to remove Gachagua from office, while at the same time finding that his constitutional rights had been violated during the impeachment process. The judges declined to quash the Senate's resolution that removed him from office but awarded him Sh50 million in constitutional damages.
"The prayer seeking to quash the resolution of the Senate to impeach His Excellency Gachagua is hereby declined," the court ruled.
However, the judges were equally firm in finding fault with part of the process, holding that Gachagua's "fair trial rights were infringed when the Senate declined to allow an adjournment in the impeachment proceedings despite his absence."
The court said the Sh50 million award was intended "to vindicate the Constitution, restore the dignity of the affected party, and deter future violations."
Both sides therefore walked away with something to celebrate. President William Ruto's allies can point to the court's decision to uphold the impeachment. Gachagua's supporters can equally argue that the court vindicated his long-held claim that he was denied procedural fairness.
Yet beyond the legal arguments lies a bigger political question.
What does the ruling mean for the opposition?
For months, Gachagua had emerged as the most visible and arguably the strongest opposition figure from the vote-rich Mt Kenya region. Among opposition supporters, he was increasingly being viewed as a possible flag bearer capable of mounting a serious challenge against President Ruto in 2027.
If the judgment remains intact, that path becomes significantly narrower.
The court was clear that while Gachagua's rights were violated, the infringement did not invalidate the impeachment itself. The judges noted that overturning the process would create what they described as a "constitutional absurdity" arising from dual incumbency.
The practical effect is that Gachagua remains out of office.
And with that reality comes a political reshuffle inside the opposition camp.
Attention is now likely to shift towards other potential presidential candidates, among them Kalonzo Musyoka, Edwin Sifuna and Fred Matiang'i.
Of the available combinations, some political observers have increasingly pointed to a possible Sifuna-Kalonzo ticket as one that could appeal to different segments of the electorate.
Sifuna brings youthfulness, sharp communication skills and a growing appeal among urban voters. At a time when young Kenyans continue to demand generational change in leadership, he represents a face that many first-time and younger voters can identify with.
Kalonzo, on the other hand, brings experience, political networks and a reputation for moderation. His long career in government gives him credibility among older voters and sections of the political establishment that may be hesitant to fully embrace a younger candidate.
Together, supporters argue, they could create a blend of energy and experience similar to political partnerships that have succeeded elsewhere by combining generational appeal with institutional stability.
But perhaps the biggest political consequence of Monday's ruling is the transformation of Gachagua's role.
The former deputy president may no longer be viewed as a front-line presidential contender, but he could become something equally influential: a kingmaker.
With significant influence in parts of the Mt Kenya region and an openly hostile relationship with President Ruto, his endorsement could become one of the most sought-after political assets in the country. Any opposition candidate hoping to build a broad national coalition would undoubtedly value his support.
In that sense, the ruling may have pushed Gachagua into a position once occupied by Raila Odinga — a leader whose political weight often extends beyond whether he is personally on the ballot.
That possibility presents a fresh challenge for both the opposition and the ruling coalition.
For the opposition, the task will be finding a candidate capable of uniting various regions while retaining Gachagua's supporters.
For President Ruto, the challenge may be confronting an influential political figure who, despite being removed from office, remains capable of shaping the political direction of a crucial voting bloc.
Yet one question remains unanswered.
Will Mt Kenya rally behind an opposition ticket that lacks one of its own at the top of the ballot?
The answer to that question may ultimately determine whether Monday's ruling merely ended Rigathi Gachagua's impeachment battle or quietly reshaped the entire race for State House in 2027.
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